Renovations and repairs are being undertaken at the Kentucky state Capitol in Frankfort, Ky. Thursday, Oct. 28, 2021 RYAN C. HERMENS rhermens@herald-leader.com
For months now, members of the GOP have been jockeying for positions up and down the 2023 statewide ballot. Auditor, secretary of state, commissioner of agriculture, treasurer, attorney general, and governor – all of them have Republican candidates who’ve been running vigorous races since at least this summer.
Meanwhile, aside from Gov. Andy Beshear’s reelection bid, nearly all has been quiet on the Democratic front, and the clock is ticking. About a month is left until the Jan. 6 filing deadline for any statewide position.
One major piece of news for Democrats broke late last month when Rep. Pam Stevenson, D-Louisville, announced that she was running for attorney general. She was somewhat surprised by the fact that her announcement made her the first candidate with significant name I.D. running for a position down the ballot from Beshear.
“It’s interesting to me that today is the first of December, and we’re still trying to figure out who’s doing what,” Stevenson said last week.
Beshear himself is at least having discussions with potential candidates, he said when asked at a press conference on Thursday.
“I’ve had talks with people about what it’s like to run statewide. I’ve encouraged people who I think will do a good job, but in the end it’s a very personal decision that people have to make,” Beshear said. “… I think you’ll see a full down ticket on both sides.”
Not everyone is as bullish about the Democratic ticket as Beshear, though.
Neville Blakemore, who ran as a Democrat for treasurer in 2015 and lost in a close primary for Jefferson County Clerk this year, said that he’s “absolutely, positively,” not running for office in 2023. Part of that calculus is the relative popularity of Secretary of State Michael Adams as well as what he thinks of as slim odds for any statewide Democrat who isn’t the current governor.
“If your last name is Beshear you can win statewide, but if you don’t have that you’re probably out of luck,” Blakemore said.
Does Blakemore’s pessimism have any merit? Republicans think so.
Indeed, Republicans have increased their grip on the statehouse with gains in both the Senate and House this election cycle. The GOP touts 31-7 and 80-20 majorities in those legislative bodies, respectively; they also hold 93 of the state’s 120 highly important county judge-executive positions. However, Democrats point to victories over the GOP-prioritized anti-abortion constitutional amendment and nonpartisan judicial candidates.
GOP candidate for commissioner of agriculture Jonathan Shell, who was once House GOP Floor Leader and served as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s campaign chairman, said that the lack of Democratic candidates running now makes sense given the shift in political power towards Republicans of late.
“We’re a Republican state. I’m not gonna say it’s a mistake for any Democrat to get on the ballot on these down ballot races, but they’re certainly going to have a really hard time because I think the state has changed so much,” Shell said.
Shell is taking part in a Republican primary for commissioner of agriculture to replace Ryan Quarles, who is running for governor after two terms in the office. Rep. Richard Heath, R-Mayfield, is running against Shell. Heath only lost to Quarles in 2015 by about 1,500 votes, or less than one percentage point, but he is behind Shell in terms of funds raised. Shell had raised about $300,000 to Heath’s $46,000 as of this Fall.
Democrats do not yet have a contested primary race. In fact, their only competitors down the ballot from Beshear are Stevenson and Kimberley Reeder, a tax attorney in Morehead. Reeder is not yet known among Kentucky politicos, but had raised $28,270 for her effort as of early October.
WHO’S IN, WHO’S OUT?
Stevenson is running a campaign that frames the office as “the people’s attorney.” The attorney and retired Air Force colonel is focused on the opioid epidemic and combatting “extreme laws from Frankfort.” She thinks the office should be oriented towards positive outcomes as opposed to solely punitive ones.
“Our sole focus should be ‘what can we do for the common good so that individual communities thrive,’” Stevenson said.
She’s been critical of the state legislature’s trigger ban on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest, which is currently being reviewed by the Kentucky Supreme Court.
Sierra Enlow is a name that’s been floated for commissioner of agriculture. Enlow is a veteran of Jack Conway’s gubernatorial campaign, which fell short against former GOP governor Matt Bevin in 2015. She’s currently an economic development consultant based in LaRue County.
Enlow told the Herald-Leader that she is “seriously considering” running for the office, but would wait to see who gets in. She wouldn’t get in, she said, if she didn’t think it would benefit the party.
Beshear senior advisor Rocky Adkins, who got 32 percent in a tight 3-way primary against Beshear and former state auditor Adam Edelen in the 2019 Democratic gubernatorial primary, has said in the past that he’s considering a run for commissioner of agriculture. However, Adkins’ comments to the Courier-Journal on the matter sounded noncommittal.
“I’m fully focused on my job in the governor’s office, trying to do everything I can to help this governor get reelected & helping the momentum of the state move forward,” Adkins said.
A spokesperson for the governor’s office did not respond to a Herald-Leader question on Adkins’ 2023 plans.
After a 21-point 2019 loss to current treasurer Allison Ball, who is looking to make the switch to auditor because of term limits, Michael Bowman told the Herald-Leader that he plans to file once again for the office. Bowman also lost a race to Republican Jefferson County Clerk Barbara Holsclaw by less than 5 points in 2018. Bowman, currently on staff for Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman, said that he will file in the first week of January after he leaves her office.
Another name for treasurer on the Democratic side: Matt Lehman. He lost a general election 4th Congressional District race against Rep. Thomas Massie this year by 34 points in the conservative Northern Kentucky-based district. Now he’s “considering” a run for treasurer.
Some Democrats like Lehman see treasurer as the most vulnerable position for Democrats to score a win. The two GOP candidates for treasurer – Andrew Cooperrider, a rising star among ‘Liberty’ Republicans who lost a primary for a Central Kentucky senate seat, and former deputy treasurer OJ Oleka – are seen as potentially more vulnerable by some.
“I think we can do better. I’m not terribly impressed by the Republicans looking to file for that seat,” Lehman said.
Rep. Buddy Wheatley, D-Covington, said that he’s been encouraged to take a look at multiple statewide offices. He recently lost to a Republican by two percentage points after GOP-led redistricting made his district more GOP-friendly.
“It’s been flattering the amount of encouragement I’ve received from a number of important people. It’s something I weigh very seriously,” Wheatley said. “Whether I attempt to join the legislative side of it again or the executive side, I’ll continue to take a look at things.”
Northern Kentucky, where Wheatley and Lehman are from, is a populous area that usually votes for conservatives but played a key role in delivering Beshear a victory over Bevin in 2019.
One person whose name has been floated for an office in 2023 also ran a contested primary in 2022: Rep. Attica Scott, D-Louisville, who lost to congressman-elect Morgan McGarvey in a bid for Louisville’s 3rd Congressional District seat. Scott told the Herald-Leader that she will not run for office in 2023.
Though the Republican field of down ballot candidates could be set – one big question hanging over the whole ticket is whether former governor Matt Bevin will get in – it’s possible that Russell Coleman gets some competition in the attorney general race from the party’s ‘Liberty’ wing. Chris Wiest, a prominent Northern Kentucky attorney, said that he was considering a bid for the office but that he “very likely” would not run.
DOES THE DOWNTICKET MATTER FOR BESHEAR?
Most everyone in politics agrees that the rest of the ticket down ballot from the governor’s race matters. The question is: to what extent?
Blair Haydon, executive director at Emerge Kentucky, which works to help elect Democratic women to elected office, said that “of course” the down ticket slate of Democratic candidates matters.
“It’s incredibly important for Democrats across the state to see that they are represented on that statewide ballot,” she said, adding that she believes a strong ticket will form by Jan. 6.
Miller agreed that the down ticket races do matter. One example he cited was the inclusion of John Y. Brown III for secretary of state and former U.S. congressman Ben Chandler for attorney general alongside former Democratic governor Paul Patton. Patton only beat Republican Larry Forgy by two percentage points, while Brown and Chandler cruised to double-digit victories.
But 2023 isn’t 1995, and Republicans have come to rule the roost through most state elections. Miller pointed out that Democrats aside from Beshear in 2023 will likely have a tough time raising money without the likely benefit of the bright national spotlight that Beshear will get.
Still, Miller argued that there’s a good argument for ambitious Democrats to jump in the race.
“For folks that are ambitious, the opportunity to run statewide, to get your feet wet and get to know people, is always very helpful. I would not have been elected state treasurer had I not run and lost for Congress the prior year, so having a good race on your belt is helpful in end.”
When asked about the rest of the Democratic slate, Kentucky Democratic Party Executive Director Sebastian Kitchen emphasized the strength of Beshear’s tenure as governor and that he will have the “necessary resources” to take on whichever Republican wins the gubernatorial primary. As for the rest of the ticket, discussions are taking place, Kitchen said.
“With the commonwealth just emerging from an election in which Kentuckians showed they’ve had enough of the overreach and extremism from the Kentucky GOP and with more than a month until the filing deadline, our leaders will continue to talk to potential candidates about running in 2023, when Kentucky Democrats will choose their nominees.”